Portfolio Review 2Q 2024

Portfolio Review 2Q 2024

The second quarter saw a pause in some of the new trends that I see in the markets: gold was essentially flat after China reported no purchases in May; some economic reports suggested a pick up in growth in the U.S.; global stocks markets slowed while many emerging markets were down, even as U.S. markets drove higher; and expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve were pushed back. In many cases these are illusions: half of the U.S. stock market’s gains this year have been driven by a single stock, for example, while lifting the hood on many economic reports presents quite a different story. We discuss this below. The reasons for higher gold and resource prices; the shift from U.S. stocks to global and particularly smaller markets;  and the vulnerability of the economy: all these trends remain intact. By raising cash; by being underweight the U.S. stock market, and shifting to more defensive positions as well as smaller global markets; and by having a large exposure to gold stocks, we are well positioned for the period ahead.

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