Portfolio Review 1Q20

Portfolio Review 1Q20

A Black Swan appeared in the form of a virus, slamming the economy and markets, with virtually every asset class and every market down sharply in March and for the quarter. There was no escaping, other than short-term Treasuries, and to some extent gold. Two points need emphasizing. Even before the virus made its appearance, there were some troubling signs, with debt in many areas at extreme levels, the Federal Reserve extremely easy again, and equities grossly overbought. That this was true a quarter ago and the quarter before that makes it no less true. The virus—and the reaction to it—has done severe damage to the economy and markets. To paraphrase Peter Schiff, it’s the size of the bubble not the pin that’s important. This was a very sharp pin, but it was a huge bubble, a bubble searching for a pin. The second point is that the reaction to the virus—and I refer here largely to the economic and monetary response—will prove more lasting and more damaging than the virus itself. Mid this carnage, however, are once-in-a-generation opportunities for the patient, disciplined and astute investor. Finish reading here: Portfolio Review 2020 1Q

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