Portfolio Review

Portfolio Review 1Q 2021

This was a difficult quarter for us, with overvalued stocks and sectors becoming even more overvalued, while gold unexpectedly languished. With many economies around the world beginning to re-open, and with central banks continuing to provide more-than sufficient liquidity, we expect equities to continue to move up, while gold should catch a bid soon. We […]

Portfolio Review 4Q 2020

Few will regret the passing of Anno Domino 2020, though investors per se for the most part did well. (This letter focuses on investments, without any callousness to other considerations.) The U.S. stock indices closed at highs; global equity indices, gold, bonds, real estate, all closed at or near highs. This apparent dichotomy between the […]

Portfolio Review 3Q 2020

It was a difficult quarter, with political chaos, covid still a concern—from a new curfew and restrictions in Britain and Spain to the illness of President and Mrs Trump as reminders—an economic recovery in the U.S., one of the strongest quarters ever (though of course following the worst quarter since the Great Depression), but an […]

Portfolio Review 2Q 2020

Global stock markets zooming ahead amidst historic unemployment and economic contraction is surreal. Half of the U.S. has been locked down, with economies virtually shut, a second virus wave appears underway, yet the stock market is almost back to February’s highs (the Nasdaq is at all-time highs). And this is not only in the U.S.; […]

Portfolio Review 1Q 2020

A Black Swan appeared in the form of a virus, slamming the economy and markets, with virtually every asset class and every market down sharply in March and for the quarter. There was no escaping, other than short-term Treasuries, and to some extent gold. Two points need emphasizing. Even before the virus made its appearance, […]

Portfolio Review 4Q 2019

The year just ended was a year when virtually everything was up, U.S. and foreign stocks, bonds, precious metals—almost every major market and sector except commodities (outside the precious metals) and energy stocks. It was quite the reverse of 2018 when, due to the late-year sell off as the Federal Reserve started its short-lived tightening […]

Portfolio Review 3Q 2019

As we move into the last quarter of the year, markets have resumed their rallies, responding to another round of lower rates and easy money around the world. U.S. equities, global stocks, bonds and gold, all moved up, adding to first half gains. Significantly, for most markets, the pace of gains was meaningfully slower; global […]

Portfolio Review 2Q 2019

The Federal Reserve made clear that it was now on a dovish path and the markets responded strongly, including the gold market. This was hardly the first signal that the Fed had finished its “tightening cycle” and that the next move in rates would be down; that had been clear since December. But markets can […]

Portfolio Review 1Q 2019

Stock markets and other assets reversed course after the Federal Reserve and other central banks faced market declines…and blinked. With an end to monetary tightening, stocks, commodities, bonds all rallied, recovering the losses of the previous quarter. The U.S. market had its best start to the year since 2002. In fact, other than currencies, very […]

Portfolio Review 4Q 2018

A year ago, we wrote that “the bull market in (nearly) all things is coming to an end. And so it has, with a vengeance, turning into a bear market in (nearly) all things. The year began with the threat of a tariff war, saw the Federal Reserve tightening all year, and ended with a […]