Portfolio Review 3Q 2022

The Great Reckoning is upon us. After more than a decade of easy money and excessively low interest rates, which boosted asset prices beyond reason and drove debt to excess levels, the time for reality is here. Stocks and other assets, across the board, continued their declines in the 3rd quarter, many aggravated by the […]

Portfolio Review 2Q 2022

The party’s over. Increasingly, for the past decade and before, America and much of the world have been living beyond their means, with the economy, living standards, and markets fueled by excess money creation. Now it’s time to unwind the masquerade. As interest rates move off 4,000-year lows––with negative interest rates consigned to the dustbin […]

Portfolio Review 1Q22

A major war in Europe with discussion of the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons…U.S. sanctions that have accelerated the demise of dollar hegemony…commodity prices shooting up to levels not seen for a decade or more…talk of world hunger…a Federal Reserve that has run out of room to manoeuver…and, amid a war and rate […]

Portfolio Review 4Q21

It was not an easy year, despite the economy recovering as we moved out of the worst of the covid epidemic, and markets hitting new highs. There are well-known problems in the economy, including inflation that seems less and less to be transitory; supply shortages; and businesses having difficulty finding employees. And in the market, […]

Portfolio Review 3Q21

To taper or not to taper, that is the question. So far, the Federal Reserve’s constant talk and threats of an impending taper have performed the job better than actually doing anything. Stocks are flat, gold is down, as are bonds. But markets are beginning to grow weary of the constant threats with no action. […]

Portfolio Review 2Q21

It is an upside-down world, where the government pays people not to work; borrowers guarantee to return less than you lent; and the wildest speculations shoot to the moon. All this is enabled, of course, by extreme monetary ease which has continued so long now that the authorities are finding it difficult—nay, almost impossible—to pull […]

Portfolio Review 1Q21

This was a difficult quarter for us, with overvalued stocks and sectors becoming even more overvalued, while gold unexpectedly languished. With many economies around the world beginning to re-open, and with central banks continuing to provide more-than sufficient liquidity, we expect equities to continue to move up, while gold should catch a bid soon. We […]

Portfolio Review 4Q20

Few will regret the passing of Anno Domino 2020, though investors per se for the most part did well. (This letter focuses on investments, without any callousness to other considerations.) The U.S. stock indices closed at highs; global equity indices, gold, bonds, real estate, all closed at or near highs. This apparent dichotomy between the […]

Portfolio Review 3Q20

It was a difficult quarter, with political chaos, covid still a concern—from a new curfew and restrictions in Britain and Spain to the illness of President and Mrs Trump as reminders—an economic recovery in the U.S., one of the strongest quarters ever (though of course following the worst quarter since the Great Depression), but an […]

Portfolio Review 2Q20

Global stock markets zooming ahead amidst historic unemployment and economic contraction is surreal. Half of the U.S. has been locked down, with economies virtually shut, a second virus wave appears underway, yet the stock market is almost back to February’s highs (the Nasdaq is at all-time highs). And this is not only in the U.S.; […]