Portfolio Review 2Q 2023
The end is nigh. The end of the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking cycle, that is. But it is not here yet. We can still expect additional rate hikes, at least this year, which will have their impact on the markets. Meanwhile, the “long and variable lags” in monetary policy mean that the full impact on […]
Portfolio Review 1Q 2023
If not a pivot, it was a significant shift in policy. The Federal Reserve’s official communique after its last hike earlier in March as well as the tenor of chairman Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference was notably different from previous occasions. Two significant developments in March ushered in this shift: the failure of three U.S. […]
Portfolio Review 4Q 2022
After years of mostly strong investment markets, spurred on by excessively easy money and ultra-low interest rates, markets around the world and all asset classes have deflated as central banks reverse course and start tightening. The extent of the excesses was such that far more will need to be done to correct them, but even […]
Portfolio Review 3Q 2022
The Great Reckoning is upon us. After more than a decade of easy money and excessively low interest rates, which boosted asset prices beyond reason and drove debt to excess levels, the time for reality is here. Stocks and other assets, across the board, continued their declines in the 3rd quarter, many aggravated by the […]
Portfolio Review 2Q 2022
The party’s over. Increasingly, for the past decade and before, America and much of the world have been living beyond their means, with the economy, living standards, and markets fueled by excess money creation. Now it’s time to unwind the masquerade. As interest rates move off 4,000-year lows––with negative interest rates consigned to the dustbin […]
Portfolio Review 1Q 2022
A major war in Europe with discussion of the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons…U.S. sanctions that have accelerated the demise of dollar hegemony…commodity prices shooting up to levels not seen for a decade or more…talk of world hunger…a Federal Reserve that has run out of room to manoeuver…and, amid a war and rate […]
Portfolio Review 4Q 2021
It was not an easy year, despite the economy recovering as we moved out of the worst of the covid epidemic, and markets hitting new highs. There are well-known problems in the economy, including inflation that seems less and less to be transitory; supply shortages; and businesses having difficulty finding employees. And in the market, […]
Portfolio Review 3Q 2021
To taper or not to taper, that is the question. So far, the Federal Reserve’s constant talk and threats of an impending taper have performed the job better than actually doing anything. Stocks are flat, gold is down, as are bonds. But markets are beginning to grow weary of the constant threats with no action. […]
Portfolio Review 2Q 2021
It is an upside-down world, where the government pays people not to work; borrowers guarantee to return less than you lent; and the wildest speculations shoot to the moon. All this is enabled, of course, by extreme monetary ease which has continued so long now that the authorities are finding it difficult—nay, almost impossible—to pull […]
Portfolio Review 1Q 2021
This was a difficult quarter for us, with overvalued stocks and sectors becoming even more overvalued, while gold unexpectedly languished. With many economies around the world beginning to re-open, and with central banks continuing to provide more-than sufficient liquidity, we expect equities to continue to move up, while gold should catch a bid soon. We […]
