Portfolio Review 4Q 2023

The tide has turned. The Federal Reserve may not have used the word “pivot”, but they made clear that there was a significant change in policy: the rate-hiking cycle has ended, and rate cuts are expected this coming year. Markets reacted as one might expect: gold and bonds turned upwards, the dollar turned down, while […]

Portfolio Review 3Q 2023

We’re not there yet! Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was relatively hawkish at his last press conference, as Fed members predicted another hike this year, and raised their forecasts for rates next year. More importantly, rates on long bonds moved up as the market faces an onslaught of Treasury issuances and a shortage of buyers. […]

Portfolio Review 2Q 2023

The end is nigh. The end of the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking cycle, that is. But it is not here yet. We can still expect additional rate hikes, at least this year, which will have their impact on the markets. Meanwhile, the “long and variable lags” in monetary policy mean that the full impact on […]

Portfolio Review 1Q 2023

If not a pivot, it was a significant shift in policy. The Federal Reserve’s official communique after its last hike earlier in March as well as the tenor of chairman Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference was notably different from previous occasions. Two significant developments in March ushered in this shift: the failure of three U.S. […]