Portfolio Review 4Q18

A year ago, we wrote that “the bull market in (nearly) all things is coming to an end. And so it has, with a vengeance, turning into a bear market in (nearly) all things. The year began with the threat of a tariff war, saw the Federal Reserve tightening all year, and ended with a […]

Portfolio Review 3Q18

The U.S. reigns supreme, as the U.S. dollar, stock and bond markets all rose in the latest quarter, almost alone. Global equities, foreign currencies and gold fell amid deepening emerging market crises and a worsening U.S.-Chinese tariff war, threatening growth and trade in many parts of the world. Steadily rising interest rates in the U.S., […]

Portfolio Review 2Q18

The long global bull market has clearly ended, as central banks begin to unwind their massive Quantitative Easing programs that followed the 2008 credit crisis. Several uncertainties, most importantly spreading tariffs and the threat of a global trade war, add to the unease. The impacts of central bank tightening and of rising inflation are underestimated […]

Portfolio Review 1Q18

As complacency gave way to concern, the global bull market came to an end, as we suggested last quarter it might. It has been a volatile quarter for most markets and assets, but in the end most declined for the quarter. This is just the beginning of the unwinding of the “global bull market in […]