"Buying a good asset at a good price is the key to long-term investing success."
Barron's Mailbag - To the Editor:
By Adrian Day (4/23/18)
Steven D. Bleiberg did a great job in "The Limits of Modern Portfolio Theory" (Other Voices, April 14). MPT simply tells us what worked in the past, but doesn't take into account future uncertainty. Practitioners also tend to conflate risk and volatility.
The latter is temporary and of concern only for those who need to draw down their portfolios, or who can't sleep at night.
Risk isn't a temporarily lower stock price; it is the permanent loss of capital. MPT is a reflection of the contemporary tendency to use false precision, thinking that it makes us more intelligent."
Kitco News Gold Survey: Gold Prices Expected To Keep Rising
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News (1/26/18)
(Kitco News) - Participants in the weekly Kitco News gold survey look for gold to keep rising next week, with traders and analysts citing the softer tone in the U.S. dollar…
Meanwhile, Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, is among those looking for a pullback.
“Gold needs to consolidate a little after the strong move since early December,” Day said. “With the government shutdown out of the way for now, one support for gold is removed. Similarly for the Korean détente during the Olympics. Fundamentally, we remain bullish, however.”…
The Trouble with Larry
By Vito J. Racanelli of Barron’s (1/22/18)
The tremor Wall Street felt last Tuesday was caused by a letter—the annual epistle from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink to CEOs of companies in which the world’s biggest institutional investor owns shares…
Fink’s letter is too long to reprint, but here’s the salient part: “Society is demanding that companies…serve a social purpose. To prosper over time, every company must not only deliver financial performance, but also show how it makes a positive contribution to society.”…
Others are harsher: Fink’s social purpose has no grounding in economics, argues Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management. And then, he adds, this is a moral question: If it is a public company, to what extent should the board spend shareholders’ money on its favorite causes—often in some swell of popular anguish—which shareholders might or might not support?...
Kitco News Gold Survey: Gold Prices To Shine In 2018
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News (12/29/17)
(Kitco News) - Wall Street and Main Street figure 2018 will be another good year for gold prices…
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, sees gold ending 2018 around $1,397 an ounce. He said the Federal Reserve’s expected monetary tightening is already discounted into prices, and likely to be “modest and slow,” thereby supporting gold.
Day also commented that Europe “could get messy again” due to trade negotiations over Brexit, a uncertain German government, “growing stridency by Poland and Hungry to the annoyance of France and Germany,” Italian elections and more Greek debt talks. Further, several geopolitical hotspots persist, including North Korean, the Middle East, Russia and a U.S.-supported Ukraine, and ongoing tensions with China over the South China Sea. Also, he continued, an “overheated” stock market is likely to have a correction by mid-2018.
“Given the overvaluation and air in many high flyers, the pullback could be severe, helping gold as a hedge,” Day concluded…
Stocks Close Higher as Some Companies Pledge to Spend Tax Bill Savings on Higher Wages
By Fred Imbert of CNBC (12/21/17)
U.S. stocks finished higher on Thursday after some companies said they would spend the savings stemming from lower corporate taxes on higher wages and new construction…
"These are really big companies that will definitely benefit from a lower tax rate," said Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management. "There is real hope that the tax cuts will boost the economy, which is what they were intended to do."…
Kitco News Gold Survey: Post-Fed Rally Expected To Continue
by Allen Sykora of Kitco News (12/15/17)
Kitco News - Participants in the weekly Kitco News gold survey look for the yellow metal to extend gains that occurred after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked U.S. interest rates this week, but did not signal any pick-up in hawkishness going forward.
Gold hit a multi-month low on Tuesday before rallying. However, observers say this has been the trend in recent Decembers – weakness as traders factor in a U.S. rate hike, then a rally once it’s out of the way. This is often referred to as a “sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact” rally… “
Gold typically rallies after a Fed rate hike, having typically declined into it,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, who is looking for an uptick in prices. “Gold certainly fell over last few weeks in anticipation of the widely anticipated rate hike. The hike was no surprise while the commentary was moderately ‘gold friendly,’ so we expect gold to make up much if not all of the recent decline in coming weeks.”…
The Value of Net Smelter Royalty Returns
By Investing News Network (11/23/17)
In today’s challenging financial climate, royalties give junior miners the capital to move forward and give investors exposure to future production and improved metals prices.
Royalties also give the seller of a resource property the ability to retain a position in future production from the property — without the associated risks or costs associated with that development…
“You’re not obligated to pay for cost overruns,” explains Adrian Day, founder of Adrian Day Asset Management. “If the government increases taxes, you don’t have to pay them. If the water table breaks and the mine shaft floods, you don’t have to pay to fix it. You mitigate the risk by avoiding all those unforeseen additional expenses. The owner of a royalty just has to be a little patient and wait for the mine to finally get built and produce gold. That’s a big benefit.”…
Kitco News Gold Survey: Gold Prices Seen Maintaining Their Shine
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News (11/17/17)
(Kitco News) - Voters in the weekly Kitco News gold survey look for the precious metal to rise again next week, with traders and analysts citing the market’s ability to develop a solid technical floor – so far at least – plus uncertainty at how smooth the sailing will be for proposed tax cuts in the U.S. Congress…
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for higher prices next week.
“Though the tax bill passed the House, it has an uphill battle in the Senate, and then the two chambers need to agree,” Day said. “Approval of a tax-cutting and simplification measure would be positive for the U.S. economy, stock market and dollar, and therefore negative for gold. But the next week or two may see setbacks in getting even this watered-down bill approved, and that would be positive for gold....".
Kitco News Gold Survey: Wall St. Overwhelmingly Sees Shine In Gold
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News (11/10/17)
(Kitco News) - Talk about a turnabout. Talk about Wall Street.
In the weekly Kitco News gold survey, not a single analyst or trader called for gold to fall next week, the first time this has happened in the roughly seven years since the poll began. All said higher, with the exception of a handful of voters who were neutral.
This completes a reversal in thinking for Wall Street, with the bulls clearly holding the upper hand for the first time in a month. Wall Street had correctly forecast lower prices in each of the last two weeks of October, before the bulls and neutral camp tied for most votes last week...
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also said higher.
“Sentiment is shifting, as the stock market—notwithstanding new highs for indices—is more uncertain, with very bad breadth and many stocks breaking down,” Day commented.
Kitco News Gold Survey: Bullish; Not Spooked By Friday The 13th
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News (10/13/17)
(Kitco News) - Nobody can accuse Wall Street or Main Street participants in the Kitco News gold survey of paraskevidekatriaphobia.
This is the fear of Friday the 13th. and even though the survey falls on this superstitious day, participants were expecting good luck - not bad - for gold, calling for the metal to be higher by the end of next week...
"I believe geopolitics surrounding the Iran deal and North Korea, together with buoyancy from rising commodities, will lift gold to $1,310 per ounce next week - possibly higher," said Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner Report. "Silver should follow gold higher next week to $17.40 per ounce."
Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, also looks for more gains. "It is increasingly clear that the Federal Reserve is going to be extremely cautious with any tightening," he said.
Gold Rush Has Hedge Funds Seeking Profit From Tools of the Trade
By Eddie van der Walt and Ranjeetha Pakiam, Bloomberg, Singapore (9/20/17)
(Bloomberg) -- The smartest guys in any gold rush are the ones selling the shovels. It's an old adage from prospecting days that holds true in today's financial age.
With prices heading for their biggest annual rally since 2010, gold trading on futures contracts has surged this year and investors are once again adding the precious metal to their portfolios. That's prompted hedge funds, commodity exchanges and asset managers to seek to capitalize by selling tools that make trading gold easier or more profitable...
Yet gold traders surveyed by Bloomberg are mostly enthusiastic. They were bullish for 12 straight weeks through Sept. 7, the longest run in a series stretching back to 2015, and only turned cautious two weeks ago after prices hit the highest in a year.
"People were very, very, very underweight gold; a lot of hedge funds had zero," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, which oversees $185 million. "There's been a little bit of a scramble to catch up."
Dow Falls from Record, Dragged Lower by Energy Stocks after Oil Enters a Bear Market
By Fred Imbert of CNBC (6/20/17)
Barron's Mailbag - To the Editor:
By Adrian Day (5/19/17)
In "The United Kingdom Can Still Exit Brexit" (Other Voices, May 13) Charles Daguerre Alvare suggested the U.K. should make an "executive adjustment" and ignore the results of the Brexit referendum vote, just as France ignored the vote 12 years ago against the European Union constitution. It is precisely this type of arrogance on the part of the elites, in ignoring the expressed wishes of the people, that has driven more people against the E.U. and more generally boosted the populist movements he decries. He states the divorce bill for the U.K.'s withdrawal is now at $110 million, "as dictated by the E.U." Interesting choice of words. It is the dictates from Brussels that led the British people to vote to leave the E.U.
Gold Bears Prowl as Impulsive Trump No Match for Rate Hikes
By Ranjeetha Pakiam, Bloomberg (4/27/17)
(Bloomberg) -- For all the unpredictability of President Donald Trump's policies in his first 100 days, gold has failed to reclaim the heights before his win in November, and some investors doubt this will happen any time soon...
Still, the concerns surrounding Trump and European politics aren't going away soon, said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, which oversees $190 million. Bullion will remain supported even as the U.S. raises rates as they would still lag behind inflation, he said, while extended U.S. stock gains are flagging risks to hedge fund managers, who are moving some money back into gold. Prices could climb close to $1,400 by the year-end, he said.
"You could see gold come off for the next couple of months," Day said from Annapolis, Maryland. "I think the fundamentals are still pretty good for gold, in terms of we've still got low interest rates around the world. There's still a high degree of uncertainty and lack of clarity about what Trump might do, and also what extent he's going to be able to do what he has said he wants to do."...
Survey Finds Gold Traders, Analysts Bullish on Bullion
By Seattle Times Staff of SeattleTimes.com (1/7/17)
Gold Traders Most Bullish in a Year After Dire End to 2016
By Eddie Van Der Walt and Ranjeetha Pakiam, Bloomberg (1/6/17)
There's one thing many gold traders and analysts agree on, now is a great time to own bullion.
Those surveyed by Bloomberg this week were the most bullish in a year. They cited worries over political developments in Europe, and in the U.S. following Donald Trump's election, as well as expectations of stronger demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. After posting the biggest quarterly drop in more than two years, prices are now heading for their best weekly performance since April.
"The euro zone has plenty of crisis triggers over coming months; Indian and Chinese buying remain strong and Trump's policy threatens inflation," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $190 million. "All this is positive for gold."...
Hedge Fund Gold Buyers Caught Out by Trump as Prices Plunge
By Lydia Mulvany, Bloomberg Markets (11/14/16)
..."We woke up Wednesday morning to find the exact opposite of what was expected," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees around $200 million...
Gold Bulls Flee at Fastest Pace Since May on Rate Outlook
By Joe Deaux, Bloomberg (10/10/16)
* Net-long position declines as investors increase short bets
* Open interest in Comex futures slides; silver, platinum drop
The Federal Reserve has spooked investors out of gold.
Prices last week posted their biggest weekly slump in three years as hawkish comments from multiple Fed officials ignited concern that the central bank will soon raise U.S. interest rates. Investors are bracing for more declines, cutting their bets on a bullion rally by the most since late May...
At the same time, there are still doubts over where the U.K.'s post-Brexit economy is heading. Fallout from the nation's vote to leave the European Union could spark global malaise, and prompt some investors to seek the safety of bullion.
"The EU is kind of digging in their heels now because they don't want other people to leave, and all of that is going to be positive for gold," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $190 million. "But that should also be good for the dollar. Gold has been struggling, and you have a lot of nervous holders of gold and gold stocks."
Stocks Close Mostly Flat as US Jobs Report Looms
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (10/6/16)
Stocks Close Lower as Energy Lags; S&P Snaps 5-month Winning Streak
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (8/31/16)
Stocks Close Mixed After Fed Commentary; Nasdaq Snaps 8-week Win Streak
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (8/26/16)
US Stocks Close Higher as Materials Gain Nearly 1 Percent
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (8/23/16)
Stocks Close Lower, but Nasdaq Posts First 8-week Win Streak Since 2010
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (8/19/16)
Hedge Funds Win World-Beating Rally with Record Gold Holdings
By Luzi-Ann Javier and Joe Deaux, Bloomberg (6/26/16)
Unlike most of the world, gold investors got it right when it came time to betting on the Brexit vote. They were rewarded with a world-beating rally...
The U.K. vote "is a fundamental change, and we could see the fallout go on for quite a while," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $165 million. "There's a lot of uncertainty and conflict there, and uncertainty and conflict are good for gold."
UK's Out Vote Proves a "Game-Changer' for US Stocks, Oil and Gold
By Debbie Carlson and Sam Thielman, The Guardian (6/24/16)
The Dow Jones dropped 610 points as gold prices jumped to their highest levels since October 2013 following the results of the EU referendum...
Gold prices - which rise in times of uncertainty - jumped to their highest levels since October 2013, rising 8%, while US crude oil prices fell about 7% on fears that the global economy - and demand for oil - would slow...
"In six months time, the larger concerns may come out. It's really not (just) about Britain leaving ... but around Scotland, northern Ireland and the EU countries, the EU project as a whole, that's a much bigger concern for investors ... The economic growth aspects become a larger concern, not just for the UK but the global economy," Abhishek Deshpande said...
Gold's short-term retrenchment from the overnight highs isn't surprising, Teves said, but longer-term gold could rise to $1,400, a figure she has heard in talks with other market participants.
Day concurred. "Earlier (prior to the vote) I talked about $1,400 by the end of the year. I still think that's reasonable," he said.
J&J Supplants Apple as Barron's Most Respected Company
By Vito J. Racanelli, Barron's (6/4/16)
SURVEY RESPONDENTS were also asked which of several factors is most important to them in determining respect for companies...
Nearly one-third of respondents indicated that strong management is key to winning their admiration...
Strong management covers a lot of ground, and can be thought to include sound business strategy, notes Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Md...
For all his success, however, Buffett has also come under criticism, particularly now that he has become more vocal about politics, taxes, and income inequality...
"One can't criticize Berkshire's performance," says Day, "But Buffett's folksy image is overdone."
When Buffett complains that the rich don't pay enough taxes in the U.S., he could always send a donation to the government, Day says. "There's nothing wrong with minimizing one's taxes," he adds...
DOL Imposing 'Fiduciary' Standard on Advisers
By Thomas Ressler, Austrian Investment Report (May 2016)
DOL Imposing 'Fiduciary' Standard on Advisers
The Obama administration's Department of Labor has finalized a new rule that will require retirement investment advisers to meet a "fiduciary" standard...
Austrians Weigh In
One Austrian in finance, Adrian Day, president of Global Strategic Management, a registered investment advisor located in Annapolis, MD, said the new rule will require more paperwork in opening accounts, make it more expensive to operate an IRA or 401(k) account, lessen the choice for investors, and tend to homogenize advice, especially for those with smaller retirement accounts, into a one-size-fits-all portfolio.
"More and more brokers, given the attack on broker fees, will move towards a wrap-type program, with an annual fee of 1.5 percent or more," Mr. Day said in a recent client bulletin. Others will get out of the business or reject smaller accounts. Further, "Those with self-directed IRAs (or other retirement accounts) will find they won't be able to buy certain stocks or types of investments because some lawyer or compliance office wants to interpret the rule broadly and wants to avoid the risk of litigation for the firm," he added.
That being said, don't blame the broker, he continued. "With any new regulation, there are intended effects, theoretical effects and then there's what actually happens in the real world.
"When these new rules take effect from April 2017, remember who is to blame when your broker tells you compliance won't let you buy this or that stock, remember who is to blame when your adviser raises fees on IRAs, remember who is to blame when a broker tells you he doesn't want to open your small IRA account," Mr. Day concluded...
Gold Lovers Bet Party Isn't Over After 17% First-Quarter Gain
By Megan Durisin of Bloomberg (4/3/16)
. Money managers increase net-long holdings by 2.1%, CFTC says
. Bullion futures post biggest quarterly gain since 1986
Even after a lackluster March, money managers are betting the best-performing commodity last quarter still has further to run...
Also helping bullion is a stumble in the dollar, which increases the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset. The greenback in March posted its biggest monthly loss since 2010 against a basket of 10 currencies.
"The fundamentals, particularly easy-money policies globally, are very positive," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $146 million. "The dollar seems to have peaked, at least for the short-term."...
Bullion is Your Best Bet in Crazy Markets, Say Experts
By Saheli Roy Choudhury of CNBC (2/12/16)
Investors should hold physical gold as a hedge in a market meltdown, some experts have advised, as equities continued their wild ride on Friday.
Jeffrey Nichols, managing director at American Precious Metals Advisors, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" if retail investors planned to buy gold as a hedge against the financial risks present in today's stock markets, they should invest in gold they could hold in their hands...
Adrian Day, president at Adrian Day Asset Management, agreed. He told CNBC's "Street Signs" that investors should "start with bullion, it is the hedge, the security, the insurance," before going into gold mining stocks for leverage and speculation...
At the same time, financial markets have come under tremendous pressure in a low growth, low interest rate environment. Concerns over China's economic slowdown, tepid global growth prospects and tanking oil prices are just some of the reasons why equity markets have sold off heavily since the beginning of the year.
The S&P 500 index, one of the most widely followed indexes, is down 5.7 percent for the year. Japan's Nikkei 225 is off 17.4 percent and China's Shanghai composite is 22 percent lower for the same period.
One reason why gold is seeing an uptick in demand is because many investors, particularly institutions, are underweight gold, according to Day.
"One of the biggest things is gold is a hedge [against monetary turmoil]. Over the last several years, a lot of investors, particularly institutional investors, hedge funds, they didn't just need gold because they were making money elsewhere," the fund manager said...
"When you see this kind of turmoil in monetary markets and you see all of the currencies fighting to go down, whether it's China or Brazil, they are all heading south [and] people want to hedge. Gold is about the only hedge that makes sense," Day said....
Gold's Monkey Magic Seen Fading After Biggest Advance Since 1980
By Eddie Van Der Walt and Ranjeetha Pakiam of Blomberg (2/10/16)
The world's best-performing commodity this year may be about to lose its monkey magic...
"Sentiment towards gold seems to be turning, particularly given the stock market volatility," Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $145 million, said by e-mail on Jan. 29...
Hedge Funds Get Gold Wagers Wrong as Fed Rate Decision Looms
By Megan Durisin of Bloomberg (10/26/15)
Gold prices are befuddling hedge funds, which are posting a track record no better than a coin flip when it comes to betting on the metal...
"I'm definitely leaning more bullish," Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $145 million, said in a telephone interview. "The Fed has repeatedly suggested or indicated that rates are coming soon and that hasn't happened. I think the market is just beginning to say that this is the boy that's cried wolf and it's not going to happen."...
Main Street Strongly Bearish on Gold Next Week, Wall Street Mildly
By Paul Ploumis of Kitco (06/09/15) Source: Scrap Monster
Gold's inability to hold earlier gains above $1,200 an ounce and a stronger than expected employment report is creating some strong pessimism in the marketplace as a strong majority of regular investors see lower prices next week...
Not all market professionals are negative on the gold market, Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management said that equity markets appear to be over-bought and a potential correction next week could benefit the gold market.
Wall Street and Main Street Both See Higher Gold Prices Next Week
By Paul Ploumis of Kitco (04/20/15)
With the U.S. dollar looking "toppy" and gold close to ending the week above $1,200 an ounce most people in the new Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey agree that prices should move higher next week...
On the professional side, analysts said they expect the U.S. dollar to be the biggest factor in gold's direction next week.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said the market is starting to anticipate lower than expected interest rates for a longer period of time, which will be dollar negative and positive for gold.
"The dollar may have topped, so even though we are not expecting a sharp decline any time soon, we are unlikely to see higher dollar levels, and that will turn to the benefit of gold," he said...
Shares Hit by China Trading Clampdown Fears
By Statesmen.com with Evelyn Cheng of CNBC (04/19/15)
New policies for trading Chinese stocks spooked European and U.S. markets on Friday.
Chinese exchanges and regulators delcared Friday that they would crack down on about-the-counter margin investing and that they would allow for fund supervisors to lend shares for limited-promoting...
Any worldwide weak point from the Chinese regulatory variations should be short term, however, mentioned Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management.
This kind of transfer was not unpredicted, he said, given the point that Chinese equities "have sort of gone nuts" with large gains in the latest months. And while the new principles might tamp down on all those price ranges, the very easily-spooked world-wide marketplaces should really shift together to the subsequent focal stage...