"Buying a good asset at a good price is the key to long-term investing success."
Gold Traders Most Bullish in a Year After Dire End to 2016
By Eddie Van Der Walt and Ranjeetha Pakiam, Bloomberg (1/6/17)
There’s one thing many gold traders and analysts agree on, now is a great time to own bullion.
Those surveyed by Bloomberg this week were the most bullish in a year. They cited worries over political developments in Europe, and in the U.S. following Donald Trump’s election, as well as expectations of stronger demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. After posting the biggest quarterly drop in more than two years, prices are now heading for their best weekly performance since April.
“The euro zone has plenty of crisis triggers over coming months; Indian and Chinese buying remain strong and Trump’s policy threatens inflation,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $190 million. “All this is positive for gold.”…
Hedge Fund Gold Buyers Caught Out by Trump as Prices Plunge
By Lydia Mulvany, Bloomberg Markets (11/14/16)
...“We woke up Wednesday morning to find the exact opposite of what was expected,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees around $200 million…
Gold Bulls Flee at Fastest Pace Since May on Rate Outlook
By Joe Deaux, Bloomberg (10/10/16)
* Net-long position declines as investors increase short bets
* Open interest in Comex futures slides; silver, platinum drop
The Federal Reserve has spooked investors out of gold.
Prices last week posted their biggest weekly slump in three years as hawkish comments from multiple Fed officials ignited concern that the central bank will soon raise U.S. interest rates. Investors are bracing for more declines, cutting their bets on a bullion rally by the most since late May...
At the same time, there are still doubts over where the U.K.’s post-Brexit economy is heading. Fallout from the nation’s vote to leave the European Union could spark global malaise, and prompt some investors to seek the safety of bullion.
“The EU is kind of digging in their heels now because they don’t want other people to leave, and all of that is going to be positive for gold,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $190 million. “But that should also be good for the dollar. Gold has been struggling, and you have a lot of nervous holders of gold and gold stocks.”
Stocks Close Mostly Flat as US Jobs Report Looms
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (10/6/16)
Stocks Close Lower as Energy Lags; S&P Snaps 5-month Winning Streak
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (8/31/16)
Stocks Close Mixed After Fed Commentary; Nasdaq Snaps 8-week Win Streak
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (8/26/16)
US Stocks Close Higher as Materials Gain Nearly 1 Percent
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (8/23/16)
Stocks Close Lower, but Nasdaq Posts First 8-week Win Streak Since 2010
By Fred Imbert, CNBC (8/19/16)
Hedge Funds Win World-Beating Rally with Record Gold Holdings
By Luzi-Ann Javier and Joe Deaux, Bloomberg (6/26/16)
Unlike most of the world, gold investors got it right when it came time to betting on the Brexit vote. They were rewarded with a world-beating rally...
The U.K. vote “is a fundamental change, and we could see the fallout go on for quite a while,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $165 million. “There’s a lot of uncertainty and conflict there, and uncertainty and conflict are good for gold.”
UK's Out Vote Proves a "Game-Changer' for US Stocks, Oil and Gold
By Debbie Carlson and Sam Thielman, The Guardian (6/24/16)
The Dow Jones dropped 610 points as gold prices jumped to their highest levels since October 2013 following the results of the EU referendum...
Gold prices - which rise in times of uncertainty - jumped to their highest levels since October 2013, rising 8%, while US crude oil prices fell about 7% on fears that the global economy - and demand for oil - would slow…
“In six months time, the larger concerns may come out. It’s really not (just) about Britain leaving … but around Scotland, northern Ireland and the EU countries, the EU project as a whole, that’s a much bigger concern for investors … The economic growth aspects become a larger concern, not just for the UK but the global economy,” Abhishek Deshpande said…
Gold’s short-term retrenchment from the overnight highs isn’t surprising, Teves said, but longer-term gold could rise to $1,400, a figure she has heard in talks with other market participants.
Day concurred. “Earlier (prior to the vote) I talked about $1,400 by the end of the year. I still think that’s reasonable,” he said.
J&J Supplants Apple as Barron's Most Respected Company
By Vito J. Racanelli, Barron's (6/4/16)
SURVEY RESPONDENTS were also asked which of several factors is most important to them in determining respect for companies…
Nearly one-third of respondents indicated that strong management is key to winning their admiration…
Strong management covers a lot of ground, and can be thought to include sound business strategy, notes Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Md…
For all his success, however, Buffett has also come under criticism, particularly now that he has become more vocal about politics, taxes, and income inequality…
“One can’t criticize Berkshire’s performance,” says Day, “But Buffett’s folksy image is overdone.”
When Buffett complains that the rich don’t pay enough taxes in the U.S., he could always send a donation to the government, Day says. “There’s nothing wrong with minimizing one’s taxes,” he adds…
DOL Imposing ‘Fiduciary’ Standard on Advisers
By Thomas Ressler, Austrian Investment Report (May 2016)
DOL Imposing ‘Fiduciary’ Standard on Advisers
The Obama administration’s Department of Labor has finalized a new rule that will require retirement investment advisers to meet a “fiduciary” standard...
Austrians Weigh In
One Austrian in finance, Adrian Day, president of Global Strategic Management, a registered investment advisor located in Annapolis, MD, said the new rule will require more paperwork in opening accounts, make it more expensive to operate an IRA or 401(k) account, lessen the choice for investors, and tend to homogenize advice, especially for those with smaller retirement accounts, into a one-size-fits-all portfolio.
“More and more brokers, given the attack on broker fees, will move towards a wrap-type program, with an annual fee of 1.5 percent or more,” Mr. Day said in a recent client bulletin. Others will get out of the business or reject smaller accounts.
Further, “Those with self-directed IRAs (or other retirement accounts) will find they won’t be able to buy certain stocks or types of investments because some lawyer or compliance office wants to interpret the rule broadly and wants to avoid the risk of litigation for the firm,” he added.
That being said, don’t blame the broker, he continued. “With any new regulation, there are intended effects, theoretical effects and then there’s what actually happens in the real world.
“When these new rules take effect from April 2017, remember who is to blame when your broker tells you compliance won’t let you buy this or that stock, remember who is to blame when your adviser raises fees on IRAs, remember who is to blame when a broker tells you he doesn’t want to open your small IRA account,” Mr. Day concluded…
Gold Lovers Bet Party Isn't Over After 17% First-Quarter Gain
By Megan Durisin of Bloomberg (4/3/16)
• Money managers increase net-long holdings by 2.1%, CFTC says
• Bullion futures post biggest quarterly gain since 1986
Even after a lackluster March, money managers are betting the best-performing commodity last quarter still has further to run…
Also helping bullion is a stumble in the dollar, which increases the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset. The greenback in March posted its biggest monthly loss since 2010 against a basket of 10 currencies.
“The fundamentals, particularly easy-money policies globally, are very positive,” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $146 million. “The dollar seems to have peaked, at least for the short-term.”...
Bullion is Your Best Bet in Crazy Markets, Say Experts
By Saheli Roy Choudhury of CNBC (2/12/16)
Investors should hold physical gold as a hedge in a market meltdown, some experts have advised, as equities continued their wild ride on Friday.
Jeffrey Nichols, managing director at American Precious Metals Advisors, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" if retail investors planned to buy gold as a hedge against the financial risks present in today's stock markets, they should invest in gold they could hold in their hands...
Adrian Day, president at Adrian Day Asset Management, agreed. He told CNBC's "Street Signs" that investors should "start with bullion, it is the hedge, the security, the insurance," before going into gold mining stocks for leverage and speculation...
At the same time, financial markets have come under tremendous pressure in a low growth, low interest rate environment. Concerns over China's economic slowdown, tepid global growth prospects and tanking oil prices are just some of the reasons why equity markets have sold off heavily since the beginning of the year.
The S&P 500 index, one of the most widely followed indexes, is down 5.7 percent for the year. Japan's Nikkei 225 is off 17.4 percent and China's Shanghai composite is 22 percent lower for the same period.
One reason why gold is seeing an uptick in demand is because many investors, particularly institutions, are underweight gold, according to Day.
"One of the biggest things is gold is a hedge [against monetary turmoil]. Over the last several years, a lot of investors, particularly institutional investors, hedge funds, they didn't just need gold because they were making money elsewhere," the fund manager said...
"When you see this kind of turmoil in monetary markets and you see all of the currencies fighting to go down, whether it's China or Brazil, they are all heading south [and] people want to hedge. Gold is about the only hedge that makes sense," Day said....
Gold's Monkey Magic Seen Fading After Biggest Advance Since 1980
By Eddie Van Der Walt and Ranjeetha Pakiam of Blomberg (2/10/16)
The world’s best-performing commodity this year may be about to lose its monkey magic…
“Sentiment towards gold seems to be turning, particularly given the stock market volatility,” Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $145 million, said by e-mail on Jan. 29…
Hedge Funds Get Gold Wagers Wrong as Fed Rate Decision Looms
By Megan Durisin of Bloomberg (10/26/15)
Gold prices are befuddling hedge funds, which are posting a track record no better than a coin flip when it comes to betting on the metal…
“I’m definitely leaning more bullish,” Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $145 million, said in a telephone interview. “The Fed has repeatedly suggested or indicated that rates are coming soon and that hasn’t happened. I think the market is just beginning to say that this is the boy that’s cried wolf and it’s not going to happen.”…
Main Street Strongly Bearish on Gold Next Week, Wall Street Mildly
By Paul Ploumis of Kitco (06/09/15) Source: Scrap Monster
Gold's inability to hold earlier gains above $1,200 an ounce and a stronger than expected employment report is creating some strong pessimism in the marketplace as a strong majority of regular investors see lower prices next week...
Not all market professionals are negative on the gold market, Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management said that equity markets appear to be over-bought and a potential correction next week could benefit the gold market.
Wall Street and Main Street Both See Higher Gold Prices Next Week
By Paul Ploumis of Kitco (04/20/15)
With the U.S. dollar looking "toppy" and gold close to ending the week above $1,200 an ounce most people in the new Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey agree that prices should move higher next week...
On the professional side, analysts said they expect the U.S. dollar to be the biggest factor in gold's direction next week.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said the market is starting to anticipate lower than expected interest rates for a longer period of time, which will be dollar negative and positive for gold.
"The dollar may have topped, so even though we are not expecting a sharp decline any time soon, we are unlikely to see higher dollar levels, and that will turn to the benefit of gold," he said...
Shares Hit by China Trading Clampdown Fears
By Statesmen.com with Evelyn Cheng of CNBC (04/19/15)
New policies for trading Chinese stocks spooked European and U.S. markets on Friday.
Chinese exchanges and regulators delcared Friday that they would crack down on about-the-counter margin investing and that they would allow for fund supervisors to lend shares for limited-promoting...
Any worldwide weak point from the Chinese regulatory variations should be short term, however, mentioned Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management.
This kind of transfer was not unpredicted, he said, given the point that Chinese equities "have sort of gone nuts" with large gains in the latest months. And while the new principles might tamp down on all those price ranges, the very easily-spooked world-wide marketplaces should really shift together to the subsequent focal stage...
Dow, S&P Post Second Straight Weekly Gains; Earnings, Deals in Focus
By Fred Imbert and Evelyn Cheng of CNBC (04/10/15)
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with the Dow topping 18,000 for the first time in April as investors looked ahead to the official start of earnings season next week... The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 posted their second straight week of gains...
While some companies have already reported their quarterly earnings, the official start to earnings season is usually marked by reports of Dow components JPMorgan Chase and Intel next Tuesday...
"I think earnings season still has the possibility of hurting the market," said Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management.
FTSE 100 Preview: Index Set for Cautious Start Following Weak US Finish
By Farquar McIntosh of Invezz (04/02/15)
The FTSE 100 Index is expected to open little-changed in today's trading, amid mixed signals from the US and Asia...
US Equity markets extended their decline into a second consecutive session, after soft economic data released yesterday put investors in a cautious mood ahead of the important jobs report for March and the start of the first-quarter earnings season...
"The economic news for the last few months has been really tepid and trending downwards," CNBC quoted Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management as saying. "I think we're going to see weaker earnings in the coming period. When you add it all together the next earnings season is going to be quite weak and a potential knock to the market."...
Expert and Analyst Stock Picks from PDAC 2015
By Johannes Kotilainen of Small Cap Power (04/01/15)
SmallCapPower's final article regarding the PDAC 2015 convention focuses on what various experts...have picked as their top choices for junior resource stocks...
Adrian Day likes royalty companies such as Franco-Nevada (TSX:FNV) and Royal Gold (TSX:RGL) as both have low risk. However as far as smaller stocks go, he likes prospect generators like Riverside Resources Inc. (TSXV:RRI), Revelo Resources Corp. (TSXV:RVL), Miranda Gold Corp. (TSXV:MAD), all of which have various potential projects.
Stocks Close Moderately Lower on Mixed Data
By Evelyn Cheng of CNBC (04/01/15)
U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday as investors weighed softness in economic data ahead of Friday's important jobs report.
"The economic news for the last few months has been really tepid and trending downwards," said Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management. "I think we're going to see weaker earnings in the coming period. When you add it all together the next earnings season is going to be quite weak and a potential knock to the market."...
"Hesitant" Gold Market to be Dominated by Month and Quarter End Flows
By Paul Ploumis of Kitco News (03/30/15)
Gold is ending the Friday session down from recent highs and with both month and quarter ending next week, some analysts are expecting prices could trade lower in a "hesitant" marketplace and shortened trading week...
Although gold could struggle in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar, Adrian Day, president and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, warned investors to not underestimate gold's safe-haven appeal, which could override U.S. dollar strength.
Saudi-coordinated military airstrikes in Yemen Wednesday and Thursday caused gold to rally on safe-haven flows and Day said that the market will be sensitive to any rise in geopolitical tensions.
"This isn't getting the news that it should and if this beocmes a focus again next week then I would expect gold to benefit," he said.
Along with geopolitical issues, Day said that he expects gold prices to remain volatile next week as the market reacts to data in anticipation of potential Federal Reserve rate hikes. He adds markets continue to go back and forth between a June rate hike and a September rate hike or that any potential hikes may be pushed back even farther.
"There is a lack of action from the Fed. There is nothing for traders to really hang their hat on and that will keep gold traders hesitant," he said.
"The Fed is waiting for the perfect moment but the longer they wait to make a decision the harder it will be for them."...
Gold Prices May Drop Next Week in a "Hesitant" Marketplace
By M. Rochan of International Business Times (03/28/15)
Gold prices could trade lower next week in a "hesitant" marketplace, with both the month and the first-quarter ending next week.
But geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and negotiations in Greece could help boost the metal's safe-haven status, helping it prevail over a stronger US dollar in a shortened trading week.
The markets will be closed on 3 April for the Good Friday holiday...
While gold could struggle in the face of a stronger dollar, Adrian Day, president and chief executive of Adrian Day Asset Management, asked traders not to underestimate gold's safe-haven appeal, which could override the greenback's strength...
Day also said that he expects prices to remain volatile next week as the market reacts to data in anticipation of likely Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Traders will be tracking US employment data through the upcoming week.
Day added that the markets continued to go back and forth between a June rate hike and a September rate hike, or that any possible hikes may be pushed back even farther...
Options Market Sees Bottom in Gold with Urgency on Hold at Fed
By Joseph Ciolli of Bloomberg (03/19/15)
With gold showing signs of recovery after its longest slump in 17 years, investors are staking a claim that the precious metal is reaching a bottom...
Gold surged 1.6 percent on Wednesday, the most since January, as the Federal Reserve indicated interest rates will rise at a slower pace than previously forecast. That trimmed gold's 10 percent retreat from its 2015 peak spurred by surging U.S. Treasury yields -- a headwind that's near the point of exhaustion -- leaving the precious metal primed for a reversal...
Money managers like Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management don't anticipate a "meaningful" rate hike from the Fed at "any time in the near future." As a result, he views bearish views on gold as overextended.
The central bank said Wednesday that higher interest rates in April are unlikely and it won't tighten policy until it is "reasonably confident" inflation will return to its target and the labor market improves further...
"It's a little bit of a surprise to me how much of it's sold off, but a lot of people were nervous and ready to hit the sell button," Day, the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees about $145 million, said by phone.
_________________________________________________________________________ PDAC: Is Canadian mining poised for a rebound?
By Peter Diekmeyer of Australian Mining (03/16/15)
Close to twenty-five thousand mining industry producers and suppliers converged earlier this month at the 2015 Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada conference. Sentiment at the gathering, which PDAC bills as the "world's largest exploration and mining event," was cautiously optimistic...
According to Adrian Day, of Adrian Day Asset Management, massive investment by the mining companies in the past decade was a major contributor to the industry's current debacles, which include huge losses at major industry players including Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining, AngloGold Ashanti, and many others. However, changing dynamics suggest that the sector could be bottoming, says Day, who points out that losses tapered off almost across the board. This coupled with huge write-downs in the coal (US $19 billion), nickel (US $21 billion), steel (US $32 billion) and gold (US $45 billion) industries are cleaning the slate, and setting the stage for new initiatives as demand picks up...
Callinan Cash Arms Dalton for Further Deals
By Global Mining Observer (03/10/15)
...Founded in 1927, Callinan moved to the main board of the Toronto Stock Exchange just two weeks ago, having recently settled a legal dispute with HudBy Minerals, the operator of 777, an underground copper-zinc mine. The settlement rolled its royalty from a net profits interest, heavily exposed to the cost of underground mining, into a flat 4 percent royalty on revenue.
Altius has maintained a toehold in Callinan, but the settlement opened the door to combining the two companies, Dalton said, with a takeover unanimously backed by both boards. "It's an obvious deal," said US-based investor Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management, a large shareholder in both companies. "It's a logical fit and there'll be a lot of cross-ownership, so I think people are going to be happy to get Altius paper."
Stripping out Callinan's cash and Altius' existing 6 percent stake and the deal cost 5 to 7 times Callinan's royalty cash flow of $10m to $13m per annum. As of HudBay's latest update, 777 (above) has a 6 to 8-year mine life, which Dalton says is a "minimum": given the mine's history of 50 percent reserve replacement, which points to a mine life of at least 9 years. "There's a lot of upside in that deposit," he said. "Callinan have a very nice royalty," Adrian Day agrees, "But they were paying a dividend and there was nothing at this point plugging that gap when 777 depleted."...
Gold Fever Fading as $4 Billion Erased From Funds: Commodities
By Megan Durisin of Bloomberg (02/22/15)
Judging by the barometer of hedge-fund interest, there's less to get excited about in gold these days...
Gold slumped 29 percent in the two years through 2014, the first consecutive annual declines since 1998, as equities surged and the U.S. economy gained traction. Futures fell 6.5 percent in February, heading for the first monthly drop since October.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed some policy makers argued for keeping interest rates near record lows for longer. The policy makers cited a strenghtening dollar, international flash points from Greece to Ukraine and slow wage growth among reasons for delaying the first rate increase since 2006, according to the record released on Feb. 18. Higher borrowing costs cut gold's allure because the metal generally offers returns only through price gains.
"Given the big drop we've had in the last month, I would certainly be bullish on gold," Adrian Day, the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees about $145 million, said by phone Feb. 19. "The Fed minutes were extremely positive. The longer the Fed goes on, the more difficult it is for them to raise interest rates, because increasingly, they're waiting for perfect conditions."...
Analysts Expect Gold Market to Hold Recent Gains Next Week
By Paul Ploumis of Kitco News (01/12/15)
U.S. economic data next week is not expected to shed any new light on the state of the economy and as a result gold prices should at least hold on to their gains after the first full week of trading in 2015, according to some analysts.
Analysts addded that continued focus on the European Central Bank's monetary policy, concerns about the impending Greek elections and geopolitical fears should continue to support the yellow metal in the near-term...
Not only did gold prices manage to start the week on solid footing but some analysts pointed out that it managed to add to its gains following a not surprising December nonfarm payrolls report. Friday U.S. Labor Department said that 252,000 jobs were created last month, slightly higher than consensus of around 245,000 jobs.
"I was expecting to see some profit taking following the employment numbers," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. "Wh had a good rally all week but we haven't seen any profit taking."
While no major rally is expected next week, the fact that gold was able to close above the key psychological area of $1,200 an ounce is a positive sign for the marketplace, he added...
Gold Set to Rise on Geopolitical Tensions in Europe
By M. Rochan of International Business Times (01/10/15)
Gold prices are set to trade higher next week as analysts expect concerns surrounding approaching Greek elections and geopolitical fears in Europe to prop up the metal's safe-haven status.
Traders will be tracking economic data coming in from the US towards the end of next week.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, told Kitco News that he does not expect a major rally next week. But the fact that the yellow metal was able to finish above the key psychological area of $1,200 an ounce, in the week ending 10 January, was a positive sign for the marketplace, he added...
Gold in Second-Year Drop for First Time Since 1998
By Taipei Times (01/03/15)
For the first time since 1998, gold posted back-to-back yearly declines.
The metal closed down 1.5 percent last year, compared with an average annual move of 12 percent in the past 14 years.
Prices touched a four-year low in December, as equities rallied and investors speculated that the US Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates.
Renewed economic concerns in Euroope as Greece hold snap elections early this year may also bolster demand for gold has a haven, said Adrian Day, the president of Adrian Day Asset Mangement in Annapolis, Maryland.
"A growing crisis in Greece and weakness in global equities will likely continue, and that will boost gold," Day said by e-mail. "Greece will dominate the dollar as a driver of gold."
Gold Futures Fall, Capping a Second Year of Losses
By Joe Deaux, Glenys Sim, Jasmine Ng and Whitney McFerron of Bloomberg News (12/31/14)
For the first time since 1998, gold posted back-to-back yearly declines.
The metal fell today as the dollar gained, reducing the appeal for bullion as an alternative asset. Bullion closed down 1.5 percent for 2014, compared with an average annual move of 12 percent in the past 14 years. Prices touched a four-year low last month as equities rallied and investors speculated that the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates...
Renewed economic concerns in Europe as Greece holds snap elections in early 2015 may also bolster demand for gold as a haven, said Adrian Day, the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland.
"A growing crisis in Greece and weakness in global equities will likely continue, and that will boost gold," Day said by e-mail. "Greece will dominate the dollar as a driver of gold"...
Best of the Best: The Most Popular Thoughts From 2014
By JT Long of The Gold Report (12/24/14)
Adrian Day Asset Management founder Adrian Day tried to put the gold price in perspective. "Let's not forget where the price of gold was a decade ago: $250/oz. It has done very well to be stuck at $1,200/oz. The number one thing for gold is the dollar, particularly in the near term. The dollar has to turn. Several Fed officials are now expressing concern about the strength of the dollar. If we see several weak economic reports in the next few months, the Fed is going to make noises about continuing to ease. That would push the dollar down and push up the price of gold."
2015: The year the stock market slows to a trot
By Matt Egan of CNNMoney (12/14/15)
The bull market may need to tap the brakes in 2015.
That doesn't mean the party is over for stocks. Investing pros surveyed by CNNMoney expect the S&P 500 to climb to 2,184 by the end of the next year, implying an 8% gain from Friday's close.
It would be a solid gain, but not as spectacular as recent years when double-digit increases have been the norm.
The obstacles are growing heading into the New Year. Higher interest rates and sluggish global growth will hold the stock market back, experts predict.
"Valuations are not particularly compelling, so a shift in sentiment caused by anything could see stock prices decline," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management...
Split Views on Gold's Direction Next Week Dominate Survey
By Kitco News (12/05/14)
Participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey are split over their views on where prices should go next week, with only a nominal number of respondents bearish.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 21 responded this week. Seven see prices up, while 10 see prices down and four see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts...
Some participants said they expect gold will hold in the current trading range.
Gold will "pause after the strong rally this past week, but the medium-term trend, as per from beginning of November, remains up. Investors realize that for all the words, monetary policy in the U.S. as around the world remains accommodative," said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer Adrian Day Asset Management.
Gold ETF Volatility Soars as Dollar, Oil Tame Inflation: Options
By Callie Bost of Bloomberg News (12/01/14)
The surging dollar and plummeting oil prices are posing a threat to gold's recent rebound from a four-year low.
Options that protect against declines in a popular fund tracking gold have risen in price to the highest level in 15 months compared with a similar gauge for U.S. equities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg...
The surge in the dollar may slow as investors realize it may have rallied too quickly, according to Adrian Day, the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. Any weakening in the dollar should provide support for bullion as central banks maintain stimulus and the Fed keeps interest rates low, he said by phone.
"Monetary policy remains easy around the world," Day said. "All of this is very strong for gold. It's really just the dollar holding it back and the sentiment around gold, which is so weak right now."...
Stronger Copper Prices in the Future
By Bloomberg News (12/01/14)
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest miner, expects Chinese growth will be strong enough to underpin consumption. About 250 million more people may move from rural areas to cities in the Asian country by 2030, bolstering demand for products including metals and food, BHP told investors at a Sydney seminar last week.
"There's no significant major new copper mines coming on stream in the near future, yet you still get the natural depletion in the existing mines," Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $140 million, said in a telephone interview yesterday. "Unless the Chinese economy really goes into an extremely low growth rate, I think we're going to see stronger copper prices, but not in the immediate term -- two years out."
Survey Participants Look For Lower Gold Prices Next Week
By Kitco News (11/28/14)
Most participants in Kitco News' weekly gold survey said they look for softer prices next week since a Swiss gold referendum is expected to fail and the dollar has been strong while crude oil has been soft.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 19 responded this week - fewer than usual during the U.S. Thanksgiving week. Five see prices up, while 11 see prices down and three see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts...
Adrian Day, president and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management, looks for gold to be "more likely up than down."
He further explained: "The biggest determinant for next week may well be the Swiss referendum, and of course we don't know the result of that yet. If the vote is positive, gold could be very strong, whereas a negative vote - other than an unexpectedly low 'yes' vote - would not be very negative since the market is not expecting a strong yes vote. So it's an asymmetrical bet in my view."
Gold Snaps 3-Week Losing Streak, Silver Rallies; US Coins Slow
By CoinNews.net (11/14/14)
Gold and silver rallied on the week. US Mint bullion sales slowed from their racing pace last week.
Gold rallied on Friday, extending a win streak to two days after seesawing for six sessions. The precious metal also scored a weekly increase for the first time in four weeks...
Results of the latest Kitco News survey weighed bearish again for gold, although a smidgen less than a week earlier. Eleven survey takers expect the yellow metal to fall next week, 5 see prices rising and 3 see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Kitco News quotes Adrian Day, president and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management:
"Flat. Difficult to call up or down, with no clear direction. Gold is trying to bounce off the bottom, but buyers see no rush, so downward pressure remains."
Survey Participants Look For Softer Gold Prices Next Week
By Kitco News (11/14/14)
The majority of participants in the Kitco News gold survey say they look for the metal to be on the defensive during the week ahead.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 36 participants, 19 responded this week. Of those, five see prices up, while 11 see prices down and three see prices sideways to unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts...
As always, some look for a sideways market.
"Flat. Difficult to call up or down, with no clear direction," said Adrian Day, president and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management. "Gold is trying to bounce off the bottom, but buyers see no rush, so downward pressure remains."
Gold's Revival Drives ETF Volatility to 11-Month High
By Debarati Roy of Bloomberg (10/16/14)
As demand for gold rebounds amid the global rout in equities, the metal's climb to a one-month high may not be the best gauge of the new-found buzz in a market that had been dormant for most of 2014.
Look at the surge in volatility instead.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Gold ETF Volatility Index, derived from options prices on the SPDR Gold Trust, yesterday reached the highest since November 2013. Futures in New York climbed for three straight days, the longest rally in two months.
More than $960 million has been added to the value of global exchange-traded products backed by bullion this month. Gold is heading for a second straight weekly gain after Federal Reserve policy makers indicated weaker foreign expansion posed a risk to the U.S. outlook. Prices are rebounding after falling 8.4 percent in the third quarter, a slump driven by concern that U.S. borrowing costs would rise.
"Some people are moving to safety, and people are concerned about the drop in equities and the global economic slowdown," said Adrian Day, the president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $150 million. "We are seeing a revival in interest in gold as there is a growing sense that the Fed is not going to be tightening in a hurry."...
Royalties & Streaming 2014
By Global Mining Observer (10/16/14)
...The lofty valuations commanded by established royalty groups, which typically trade at hefty premiums to their net asset value, owe less to their precious metals status than to their lack of operating exposure, argues US-based fund manager Adrian Day, who has holdings in Franco and Altius.
Day points to the downtrodden valuations of gold majors as evidence that the market rewards more than just gold backing, suggesting a bulk or base metals royalty group would also jump to a premium, if its cash flow and deal record were proven...
Fed "May Find It Easier To Talk About Tightening Than To Act"
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News (10/07/14)
Federal Reserve policy-makers "may find it easier to talk aobut tightening than to act," says Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. He says a "healthy dose of skeptism" is in order. "After the original quantitative easing program, the Fed said there would be no new QE program," Days says. "That was back in early 2010. Since then we have had more QEs and QEs under other names (like) 'Operation Twist', each time with promises that this would be the last; we've seen thresholds come and thresholds go -- 6.5% unemployment rate was to trigger the end of stimulus, recall," he says. He later adds, "already the Fed is backing away from its comments about raising interest rates by mid-2015, now saying that short-term real rates will remain negative through the end of 2014 -- not necessarily contradictory, but certainly a different emphasis."